If you live in Melbourne, then you will probably find it exceedingly difficult not to be sucked into the tornado of hype, media reporting and general all-round enthusiasm surrounding the beginning of a new AFL season, which, as it happens, was a couple of weekends ago. Here are my (slightly late) predictions for the year.
Ladder
1 Hawthorn
2 Geelong
3 Carlton
4 Sydney
5 Collingwood
6 North Melbourne
7 West Coast
8 Essendon
9 Fremantle
10 Richmond
11 Adelaide
12 Melbourne
13 Brisbane
14 St Kilda
15 Bulldogs
16 Gold Coast
17 Port Adelaide
18 Greater Western Sydney
1. Hawthorn
Many footballing experts see Hawthorn as the team to beat this year and after the effort they dished up against the Pies, it seriously looks as though it will be hard to argue against that. Lance Franklin is the best player in the competition by a very, very long way. Elsewhere in the Hawks team, Jack Gunston will want to show he can play a role in the forward line after being traded from Adelaide and Sam Mitchell goes about his merry way getting touches of the footy every week. It is difficult to see the Hawks losing many games this year. They are scary, freakishly good, and coached very well. Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Ryan Schoenmakers and Ben Stratton form a reliable defence. Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis and Cyril Rioli are a well-oiled unit in the midfield. And then of course, there’s Franklin, the colossus, standing in the forward line as if daring defenders to try to stop him. Hawthorn are my premiers for this year.
2. Geelong
Chris Scott inherited a very good football team. Geelong of course won the Grand Final last year and in doing so established themselves as a dynasty. They resigned Joel Selwood for 5 years and made him captain – the courageous midfielder is a true star of the competition. They have too many stars to name, across every line. Jimmy Bartel, Paul Chapman, Steve Johnson, Joel Corey and Corey Enright are just a sample of the talent in the Geelong stable. Young players like Mitch Duncan in the championship midfield, Allen Christensen floating around half forward and Daniel Menzel (when he returns from a knee injury) mixed with the aging stars will, in my eyes, defy the experts and push for another Grand Final berth. However, beating the Hawks looks the most difficult task this year.
3. Carlton
Carlton look set for a big one. Their #1 picks are starting to fire up after a lacklustre pre-season. Their A-grade midfield of Chris Judd, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer is among the best in the game. Kreuzer in particular, looks set for a gigantic year as a ruckman/forward, after taking apart the Tigers in Round 1. Speed and skill around the flanks from Chris Yarran, Heath Scotland, Andrew Carrazzo and Kane Lucas in addition to the ferocious attack from Mitch Robinson make the Blues a formidable opponent in the middle of the ground. Where they lack is their key forwards. Lachlan Henderson is passable but not the answer, and they need to find a key forward who can win them games off his own boot. A deep push into the finals for mine.
4. Sydney
Here’s where the ladder starts to look a little bit different to anyone else’s. Sydney are a huge chance to leapfrog West Coast and Collingwood. Adam Goodes is an out-and-out star of the competition and has been for a long time, and while Sydney’s playing style has long been considered dour and a little boring, players recruited in recent years like Gary Rohan, Daniel Hannebery and Sam Reid are doing their absolute best to turn around the perception of Sydney. The mixture of old heads and new ones and an extra year under their coach John Longmire should see Sydney make a dramatic rise back into the top 4.
5. Collingwood
Putting the Pies so low could be controversial. They went and got a new coach in Buckley and perhaps the club needing to get used to the new style of play will drop them down. They have put their all into the last two years and I believe they are tired. Any team with Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke and Dane Swan has every chance of shaking the finals, however.
6. North Melbourne
I will openly admit to a little bit of bias on this one. I know North Melbourne better than any other team. Daniel Wells could tear the competition to shreds, Drew Petrie is a contested marking machine and the young midfield brigade of Cunnington, Ziebell, Bastinac, Adams, among others, has huge scope for improvement. North Melbourne need a big year for coach Brad Scott and internally the club believes they can do it.
7. West Coast
The loss of goalsneak Mark LeCras and half forward Mark Nicoski cannot be ignored. West Coast are a great side but those two players were absolutely essential in their push for the top 4 last year. Their forward line is depleted without LeCras, and Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy will have to step up. Nick Natanui is an excitement machine to watch.
8. Essendon
Essendon are a team that if you don’t love, you despise. In saying that, they have some players who you just love to watch. Michael Hurley recently signed a 5 year deal to stay with the club, and the power forward hits packs harder than almost anyone else. Jobe Watson, Heath Hocking and younger players like Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis are the players to take the team forward. A few years off really challenging.
9. Fremantle
Freo will need a year to adjust to Ross Lyon. Matthew Pavlich is getting old and will spend more time out of the midfield this year. Hayden Ballantyne will continue to annoy everyone in the AFL and the mangiant Aaron Sandilands is as difficult an opponent to match up on as there is.
10. Richmond
Richmond’s top 5 are magnificent. Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio and Tyrone Vickery are all topflight players. The problem is that it falls away after that. Brandon Ellis and Todd Elton are two youngsters to watch.
11. Adelaide
Adelaide are coming. They’ll be good, in a few years. They have a new coach and they need to get used to that. Patrick Dangerfield is a bull of a player, and Tippett & Walker are twin towers in the forwardline. One team to watch and the winners of the pre-season competition.
12. Melbourne
It will all be for Jim Stynes this year. Unfortunately a finals berth looks unlikely. Melbourne are another club with a new coach, and they will need to adjust. Jack Trengove is a terrific choice as captain, but Melbourne need more from Jack Watts and their forward line, including new recruit Mitch Clark.
13. Brisbane
Simon Black and Jonathon Brown are two stalwarts of the Lions side. They have some great young players in Patrick Karnezis and the lethal left boot of Daniel Rich, but can’t see the Lions making the finals this year.
14. St Kilda
Another surprise. Talent everywhere with Nick Riewoldt, Brendon Goddard, Sam Fisher, Lenny Hayes.. but for some reason I don’t think they can put it together like previous years. Sorry, Saints fans.
15. Bulldogs
Again, a lot of talent in this team. The Dogs have Matthew Boyd, Ryan Griffen, Daniel Cross in a terrific midfield. Clay Smith is a young tough nut, but the Dogs aren’t good enough to make finals this year.
16. Gold Coast
Their second year in the competition. The Suns boast a wealth of talent and the incredible Gary Ablett, but they need more development. A lot to like though.
17. Port Adelaide
Port just aren’t very good. Their better players get injured a lot, and they have a lot of very average footballers. They could be considered to be rebuilding. Watch for Chad Wingard.
18. Greater Western Sydney
Their first year in the competition. They won’t win much. Callan Ward will play a huge role in the team, but this is as sure a bet as there is. Give them a while.
So there you have it! The likely scenario is a Hawthorn premiership this year, but just as likely to happen is my predictions being so wrong that it’s simply rude not to laugh at them.
Thank god the footy’s back.
